Would Berks have swept all five sections in Lancaster-Lebanon play in 2021?
When the Lancaster-Lebanon League finally agreed in 2020 to accept 13 Berks football teams to create a mega conference there was excitement and anticipation about how the 37-team league would shake out.
One anxious Lancaster County coach said, “Can we start it now?”
Now is finally here.
Some five long years after initial, informal talks began, Gov. Mifflin, Exeter and 11 other Berks schools are set to join Wilson in the now five-section Lancaster-Lebanon League. Kickoff is just three weeks away.
Between now and then you’ll hear all kinds of prognostications about who will win the five sections in the league’s inaugural season. That’ll mostly be guess work, because we really don’t know.
Looking back we do have an idea of what might have happened had the current set-up been in place for the 2021 season. Here’s a section-by-section look at how things might have played out.
Projected records were determined by head-to-head match-ups. If the teams didn’t face each other, District 3 power rating was used to determine the potential outcome. If the teams met in both the regular season and in the postseason, as Mifflin and Exeter did, the regular season outcome was used.
Section 1
This is the least-affected of the five sections by league expansion. Reading High was added to what had been a six-team section. The Red Knights won’t make much of an impact; they’re currently in a building situation and start 2022 with a new head coach, Troy Godinet.
Wilson went through league play unbeaten last season, with only a couple of close calls: A 28-21 win over Hempfield and a 21-14 win over Manheim Township.
Township, Hempfield and Cedar Crest tied for second at 3-2. Adding Reading to the mix wouldn’t have changed any of that. Only McCaskey, which went winless in the section, would’ve benefited. The Red Tornado beat the Red Knights 27-20 last year.
Here’s how they would have finished:
| SECTION 1 | |
| Wilson | 6-0 |
| Cedar Crest | 4-2 |
| Hempfield | 4-2 |
| Manheim Township | 4-2 |
| Penn Manor | 2-4 |
| McCaskey | 1-5 |
| Reading High | 0-6 |
Section 2
Two key off-field moves helped make races in Section 2, 3, 4 and 5 a whole lot more intriguing: Manheim Central swapped places with Elizabethtown and opted to play in Section 2 and Wyomissing switched with Kutztown so that it could play up in Section 4.
The Barons would’ve steamrolled the competion in Section 3; same goes for the Spartans in Section 5. League play would’ve been a snoozefest.
Now we’ve got some races, and Section 2 will be among the best with long-time District 3 kingpin Manheim Central banging heads with Exeter and Gov. Mifflin — the past two district Class 5A champs — and Warwick.
Those are the top teams heading into this season, and likely will be for the near future.
So, how would things have shaken out had they been paired last season?
The Mustangs, with explosive Nick Singleton in the backfield, would’ve run through the league unbeaten, as it did in Section 1 of the Berks Football League last season. Though they didn’t back it up in the postseason the Mustangs were better than the Eagles during the regular season. They beat them 54-21 head-to-head.
Exeter, meanwhile, lost at Hempfield and to Central York to finish 7-3 in the regular season. The Eagles found a new gear in districts, winning four straight, including an impressive 43-26 win at Manheim in the second round.
Warwick shared the LL Section 2 title last year with Manheim Central and Cocalico; the Warriors finish ahead of the Barons in this scenario based on their 35-28 win at Manheim.
Here’s how they would have finished:
| SECTION 2 | |
| Gov. Mifflin | 6-0 |
| Exeter | 5-1 |
| Warwick | 4-2 |
| Manheim Central | 3-3 |
| Conestoga Valley | 2-4 |
| Muhlenberg | 1-5 |
| Lebanon | 0-6 |
Section 3
This is an interesting collection of football programs. The seven schools played in four different sections last year. None came close to winning a title; three qualified for districts.
There’s no clear-cut favorite this season. Had they competed against each other in 2021 the section would’ve ended in a three-way tie with Daniel Boone, Fleetwood and Twin Valley each finishing 5-1 in league play.
Head-to-head the Tigers beat the Raiders 26-9 and the Raiders beat the Blazers 19-10. The Blazers didn’t play the Tigers but posted a highest power rating, .604 to .575, so they get the head-to-head win in this projection. (Twin Valley came in at .601.)
Garden Spot finished 3-1 last season in Section 3 but two of those wins came against teams no longer in the section– Lancaster Catholic and Lebanon. Plus, the Spartans’ .485 power rating was sixth among the seven teams and just slightly ahead of Solanco (.484).
Here’s how they would have finished:
| SECTION 3 | |
| Daniel Boone | 5-1 |
| Fleetwood | 5-1 |
| Twin Valley | 5-1 |
| Elizabethtown | 3-3 |
| Garden Spot | 2-4 |
| Ephrata | 1-5 |
| Solanco | 0-6 |
Section 4
Of the league’s five new sections none have generated more buzz than this one. It brings together some powerhouse programs: Wyomissing, Lampeter-Strasburg, Cocalico and Berks Catholic each have won District 3 championships in recent years.
The Spartans have won three straight Class 3A titles and appear headed for a fourth straight. The Pioneers won 4A titles in 2019 and 2020 and were turned back in the championship game last year by Bishop McDevitt, 7-0. The Saints appeared in a Berks-record seven straight district title games, winning in 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2013.
Six of the seven teams had power ratings of .621 or better last season and reached districts; only Elco (.483) missed the cut.
Last year’s section title — like this year’s, it seems — comes down to Wyomissing and Lampeter-Strasburg. They didn’t meet in the real season but played a closely contested scrimmage, for what it’s worth. The Spartans get the nod here based on power rating at .814, compared to the Pioneers’ .715.
Berks Catholic takes third place ahead of Cocalico based on a 21-7 victory over the Eagles in the district playoffs.
Octorara finished 8-3 last year and 4-1 in Section 4 play but would get just one win here, over Elco.
Conrad Weiser, which went 7-4 overall and finished second to Wyo in Berks 2 would’ve struggled here; its only wins would’ve come against Elco (which it beat 35-32) and Octorara (based on a slight power rating advantage).
Interesting to note that Berks Catholic and Wyomissing are the only Class 3A schools here; Cocalico is now 5A, the rest are 4A.
Here’s how they would have finished:
| SECTION 4 | |
| Wyomissing | 7-0 |
| Lampeter-Strasburg | 6-1 |
| Berks Catholic | 5-2 |
| Cocalico | 4-3 |
| Donegal | 3-4 |
| Conrad Weiser | 2-5 |
| Octorara | 1-6 |
| Elco | 0-7 |
Section 5
As mentioned before Wyomissing’s opt-up to Section 4 made this whole deal work. The Spartans would’ve mercy-ruled every team in this section: last year, this year, most years. Who wants to see that?
The teams seem closely bunched this season, with Columbia, Hamburg, Lancaster Catholic and Annville-Cleona the top contenders.
That’s how it would’ve shaken out last year, too.
Columbia went unbeaten in Section 4 of the LL last season, with league wins over Annville-Cleona, Northern Lebanon and Pequea Valley, which join them in this section.
Hamburg struggled in Section 2 of the Berks League against bigger schools but clobbered Northern Lebanon in a non-leaguer and won league games over Schuylkill Valley and Kutztown, which join them in this section.
The Crimson Tide get the nod based on a .681 power rating and its 8-2 overall record. Only the Hawks had a power rating (.584) above .500.
Lancaster Catholic lost a non-league shootout to Columbia, 60-41, and dominated A-C, 49-14.
Kutztown hasn’t had a league win since 2009 but would’ve gotten one last year under this format: The Cougars put up 76 points in a wild win at Pequea Valley.
Here’s how they would have finished:
| SECTION 5 | |
| Columbia | 7-0 |
| Hamburg | 6-1 |
| Lancaster Catholic | 5-2 |
| Annville-Cleona | 4-3 |
| Northern Lebanon | 3-4 |
| Schuykill Valley | 2-5 |
| Kutztown | 1-6 |
| Pequea Valley | 0-7 |